Wheat: US wheat slumped on a strong US$ (12-month highs), the advancing harvest (25% complete vs 9% last year), slow export sales, very high first ratings for CWRS, and an 8% drop in the Ruble (the equivalent of almost $20 on Fob prices. All of which left CBOT and KC weeklies setting up massive head & shoulder patterns. Argie futures hit 4-month lows with July at $201 (down $35 from the May highs), and Dec at $206 (down $30 from May), although planting now lags last year due to wet conditions in the south. Aussie futures also made 4-month low weekly closes despite mixed condition reports: some regions have reportedly rarely looked better, others will see significant dryness related area declines, whilst switches to canola and El Nino still sit in the background. Matif spiked €9 early on extreme heat for W Europe and a sliding €uro, but gave most of it back on reported record yields in the Balkans, and building concerns over MENA import demand. Despite a delayed harvest, protein concerns, fuel shortages, and expected higher interior freight costs, Russian fob fell below $230 on the Ruble’s 3-month low. Ukraine’s crop still looks above last year, but logistics remain an issue due to ongoing port damage. Outlook: The negative pull of much bigger importer production seems to be winning the battle against the much lower exporter crops helped by falling freight rates but partially offset by the US$ 12-month high.

Corn: CBOT corn ended down but off earlier contract lows. Weakness came from the strong US$, slumping crude and still decent crop ratings (68% Gd/Ex), but export sales remain 25% above last year (USDA up 16%, a 255 Mbu equivalent), and there is some fear of a lower yield in Tuesday’s report, due to recent excessive rain and a warming forecast. Brazil futures rose in Real terms but fell in US$ as the Real fell to 3-month lows, whilst BAGE put the Argentine harvest 51% complete and kept their crop number at 64 Mmt (USDA 61 Mmt). Data still shows exporters net long 6.6 Mmt corn vs licences (27.3 Mmt vs 20.9 Mmt). Dalian new crop made a 5-month low weekly close, whilst Jo’burg managed to recover from last week’s contract lows. Matif Nov took its 2-week gains to €17 (50¢ per bu) with EU pollination occurring under record heat. Ukraine crops look good, but the current heat dome over W Europe pushes east into the Balkans and Black Sea from the weekend. Outlook: Europe is clearly the biggest crop issue, but is not seen as a major factor for world price given supplies elsewhere, the absence of China, and the ongoing fall in crude. Tuesday brings the US stocks and plantings report.

Proteins: While the US crop ratings held steady at 66% gd/ex, beans extended gains for a second week, with July futures up 3.5¢ and Aug 8¢ higher ahead of the USDA stocks/plantings reports, thanks to the old crop export sales and Chinese buying of new crop. Meal some of the recent losses, but the basis market lost $3-4/st. Beanoil futures gained 161 points, with basis holding steady. SOAM basis strengthened, with Brazilian beans premiums up 10–15¢ amid Chinese demand through September. Abiove raised Brazil’s crop estimate to 180.25 MMT and crush to 63 MMT, tightening stocks slightly. The Argentine strikes continues to affect crushers coverage, while meal basis were higher for spot positions and weak/steady for deferred shipments. Dalian beans complex closed higher, led by beans at a 6 week high, that said, the weak Chinese crush margins is seen as a constraint for further demand. Palm oil traded lower but remained within its recent range. In Europe, Rapeseed futures rebounded €8, with the narrowing Q/X carry highlighting nearby supply concerns. Meanwhile, the 13c temp anomalies urged farmers to switch to rapeseed harvesting in order to limit losses. Canadian canola also ended higher after 3 weeks of weaker trading, with Alberta crop ratings at 59.8% gd/ex, while Sask development remains well behind normal due to the late plantings. Outlook: The focus is on Tuesday’s USDA stocks/plantings reports, but Trump seeking $11 bln in farm aid is key to monitor as that would bring direct farmers payments to $55.4 bln in 2026; highest since 2001 and representing 1/3 of total farm income. Global supplies remain ample, but China appears again for US beans, while, Europe’s tightening supply outlook and weather concerns keep that end supported.